Yo, Bosnia, Where You At?

So, it occurred to me the other day, after hearing Hilldawg’s Bosnia tale teeming with hyperbole (as a result of ‘fatigue,’ people, not because she’s a conniving witch who completely forgot that her every move was televised for eight years…now that’s presidential material!) that we haven’t heard anything from our Southeastern European friends in forever. No, really, when was the last time you heard ANYTHING about Bosnia? After a few years with the Dayton Accords in place, there’s been astonishingly few developments reported out of Bosnia (and don’t forget Herzegovina!). I vaguely recall an election during my upperclassmen years, but that’s it. I find this quite intriguing when one considers this nation’s conflicts dominated global headlines in the mid-90’s in Iraq-esque fashion.

Well, in the world of international politics, the trite adage “no news is good news” is undoubtedly applicable, in particular concerning the Balkan entities. Let’s take Slovenia. Do you know where Slovenia is? Have you heard of Slovenia? Why is our knowledge so lacking on the subject of the aloof relative of the Balkans? Because after the split-up of Yugoslavia, Slovenia decided they were going to play a role-playing game called “hey, let’s pretend we were Austrian this whole time.” Since independence, Slovenia has avoided conflict almost entirely, developed easily the region’s most modern government (think: e-conference calls and largely paperless government around the turn of the millennium) and a sophisticated economy (ok that’s an exaggeration, but their tourism is tight because they offer both Adriatic beaches and Alpine skiing). By avoiding strife (granted it was a lot easier for them to do so) and creating a dynamic economy, Slovenia is a successful member of the European Union who have already been inducted into the Schengen free movement zone and are on the verge of being a European Monetary Union country. In other words, no news is good news was applicable to our friends in Slovenia, is it the case for Bosnia?

I decided to a little research to elucidate the situation in Europe’s most troubled nation last decade. It turns out my hypothesis was indeed correct. Granted, B&H (sounds like a consulting firm, they might’ve had more success in that department) is a long way from rivaling their former compatriots Slovenia; however, when one takes into account that Bosnia has to build from scratch after genocidal conflict ravaged any semblance of infrastructure, Bosnia’s not doing too badly and there exist a number of auspicious harbingers for this developing nation. First, the economy is growing at a healthy 5.5% which is no China, but is growing faster than the majority of Bosnia’s central European counterparts. Second, foreign direct investment grew by almost 250% between 2006 and 2007. FDI often serves as an accurate barometer for future growth. GDP Per capita is at a healthy $7,000 USD, which may not seem like a lot, but tell that to my homies in the Central African Republic (700 buckaroos). Though a sizable portion of Bosnia’s agrarian economy remains inefficient and government spending is a little overblown, growth on every measurable scale (Per Capita, GDP, GNH) is unequivocally superior to where it stood ten years ago.

Secondly, and more importantly, Bosnia’s ethnic tensions have quelled substantially, thanks largely to a large UN Peacekeeping Force over the past decade. Though animosity continues to fester under the surface, citizens of Bosnia have managed to avoid significant conflict, which, in turn, has allowed the UN to decrementally (I’m pretty sure that’s not a word) reduce the number of soldiers based in B & H from 60,000 to under 3,000.

So, congrats Bosnia, you’re officially on the road to recovery. And, hey, Iraq/Afghanistan, maybe you guys can take some solace in the fact that the United States hasn’t botched every nation-building attempt in the past few decades. Who knows, maybe there’s hope for Iraq-istan yet.

Genocide As an Electioneering Tool: Simply Deplorable

One of the most abhorred developments in international politics over the past few years is the use of genocide recognition as a tool for electioneering. What the hell am I talking about, you ask? Specifically, I am referring to the supposed genocide of Armenians at the hands of the Ottoman Empire during World War I. Unlike the atrocities of Rwanda, Yugoslavia, and, most obviously, Nazi Germany, in which, a consensus amongst non-partisan scholars is that genocide occurred, knowledgeable academics on the subject of the crimes against the Armenian people remain divided. The Armenians claim that the Ottoman Empire systematically attempted to eradicate ethnic Armenians. The Turks claim that the Armenians were in the midst of an uprising attempting to take advantage of a distracted Ottoman Empire engaged in WWI and that the Ottomans were simply trying to quell the Armenian insurgents. The only thing I can be sure of is that the truth lies somewhere in between. Simply put, if scholars squabble about wrongdoings almost a century ago, it’s unlikely that any new developments would materialize this century that would unequivocally determine which side is right. Then why did France pass a bill in 2006 that made denying the (unconfirmed) Armenian genocide an offense worthy of imprisonment? (Literally if I was still in France, and members of the French government were spying on me, and let’s face it, after my accusations, they probably are, I could be imprisoned for just a tacit inference that the wrongdoings that happened during WW1 were not genocide. Remember, Germany has a similar law concerning the Holocaust, but there’s just a teenyweeny difference between denying a proven genocide of more than 6 million people in the country that it occurred and denying an unverified genocide in a country more than a thousand miles away). The reason why the French government passed this law is because 500,000 Armenians have immigrated to France since WWI, and guess what, they feel kinda strongly on the subject. This was just a blatant attempt to pander to Armenian constituents (Even more absurd is that France does not insist on Turkey recognizing the genocide as a precondition for joining the European Union! Duplicitous!) Not surprisingly, our beloved American politicians have not been immune to wielding this disgraceful political tool. Last October, Nancy Pelosi and her stupid pearls tried to pass a bill that would recognize the Armenian genocide here, too. This is doubly idiotic for the United States, because Turkey is an absolutely integral ally in the war against Iraq. Without the support of the Turkish government (namely its air bases, due to their proximity to northern Iraq), this difficult war would be even more formidable. Why could Nancy Pelosi possibly care about Armenians? Not because she’s a great humanitarian attempting to enhance recognition of an egregious historic wrongdoing, nope; it’s because Glendale, California has the largest Armenian population outside of the motherland, and when Ms. Pelosi eventually runs for Senator of California, a hundred thousand votes or so could come in handy! In a rare display of wisdom from our Commander in Chief, W. was able to prevent this bill from becoming law. Unfortunately, this won’t stop Madame Pelosi from claiming next election that she’s a champion of the Armenians of California. Well, I guess I can’t really fault her; I’d like to be the champion of Kim Kardashian too!

A Western Media Bias Against Serbia?

Last week, the Kosovo region of Serbia declared independence. Most western countries have recognized this fledgling nation. However, certain Slavic and Asian countries (namely Russia and China) were quick to denounce what they perceived as a rogue declaration of sovereignty, largely because of the striking parallels of separatist movements in their own respective countries. The western media has, once again, done a deplorable job of contextualizing the situation and has presented a one sided case for Kosovo independence with barely any mention of Serbia’s claim to the land. Look at the Serbian perspective; 20 years ago, Srbija (as the seat of power for Yugoslavia) was one of the most powerful Eastern European states and had significant clout in the international arena. Since then, Serbia has seen its country disintegrate through a number of brutal conflicts, all of which Serbia has lost. Everything from economic stature, to population to military prowess is a fraction of what it was 20 years ago. Two years ago, Serbia lost Montenegro, and now, the last remaining province, Kosovo, has broken off. Watching one’s country fall apart so tangibly has a distinctly detrimental effect on the collective national psyche. In addition to witnessing one’s glory fade, Serbians consider Kosovo to be their heartland and the basis of their culture, even though the Serbs haven’t been the majority there in years. Imagine if New England’s Cape Verdean population quadrupled every decade for the next century and in the year 2100, they decided to secede. Wouldn’t you be pissed off? I wouldn’t be because I think New England is totally gay, but most people would be. I can totally empathize with the Serbs on these points, but I’m torn as to which side to back. As I’ve expressed before, the Kosovars are not exactly my favorite people, but they were subjected to unspeakable atrocities at the hands of the Serbs, and probably deserve a free state. I wouldn’t go as far to say I support a free Kosovo, but if someone had a gun to my head and demanded that I choose a side, it would be an independent Kosovo. What irks me about the most about the secession is the status quo on the antiquated, arbitrary borders that define Kosovo, even though that includes the Serb-dominated north of Kosovo. This creates another Balkan country with a majority that despises a minority even though, in this situation, it could be easily avoided because the Serbs and the Kosovars, for the most part, live in segregation (such was not the case in Sarajevo, where Croats, Bosnians, and Serbs lived side by side). Currently, the Serbian government actually has de facto control of the region, but if this area is not formally ceded to Serbia, I foresee problems arising. Namely, Kosovo will probably (though this is conjecture, but entirely plausible) enact laws giving ethnic Kosovars favorable treatment in terms of employment, taxes, university,  and other functions that have to go through a central government which will only serve to exacerbate tensions between the two factions. If a solution can be reached over the northern part of the country, then I’d be far less concerned about any armed conflict arising between Serbia and Kosovo. I still think the possibility of war between the two sides is slim (Serbia does not want to screw with NATO again), but desperate countries have done stranger things.

New Entrants Into The Sex Trade Industry

A few entries ago, I made light of the sex slave industry in a commercial parody, but I should make it clear that the sex slave trade is an entity I despise wholly. (Wow, that was a pretty bold statement. What am I going to say next? That I thought the Holocaust was despicable too?) I think everyone involved should be put before the firing squad. Normally, I would qualify that statement with a parenthetical remark to the effect that the women should be spared. But upon reading this terrifying article, it appears as if a great number of former sex slaves are turning around and becoming the traffickers themselves. In Eastern Europe, women now account for 30% of all human trafficking arrests. This was probably the most appalling news development that I’ve read all year. I’m not trying to defend the male perpetrators, or provide a justification, by any means, but it is different. The men have not had to personally endure the terror of sex slavery; often, men in the trade benefit sexually (in a very perverted sense), abusing stoned and enslaved young women. Because masculine sexual emotion is rather one-dimensional, men traditionally do not understand fully the complexities of female sexuality and the potential detriment to their psyches (Male sex traffickers are cognizant of their wrongdoings, AND BY NO MEANS DOES THIS MEAN TO IMPLY THEY ARE NOT TO BLAME, but men are jerks, and cannot possibly understand the female trafickee’s perspective in its entirety ). Females traffickers, on the other hand, understand EXACTLY the horrors they are putting these girls through because they suffered through the same atrocities! How could someone do this? For both males and females, it’s just another example of how some folks are willing to compromise all semblance of ethics in order to prosper monetarily. One thing’s for sure: both males and females who barter in human currency will spend eternity in the deepest circles of hell.

The Bear Awakens

Two news stories this week really worried me  (SOS NOTE: I wrote this like a month and a half before publishing date on a different site, so bear that in mind). The first, as brought to my attention by Mr. Justin Leone, was the deal struck between the Russian government/Gazprom and their Serbian counterparts to take a controlling interest in Serbia’s state-owned gas company NIS and pave the way to construct a pipeline affording the Russian oil conglomerate even greater access to European Union markets. Why am I vexed, you ask? Simple, Gazprom was able to purchase a 51% stake in NIS for roughly 400 million Euros, despite the valuation of the shares at roughly 1.5 billion. This transaction sets a dangerous precedent, as Serbia undersold to the Russians because the Russians vowed to never recognize an independent Kosovo, despite the majority of European Union and United Nations declaring they would recognize a Kosovar state (Kosovars, who are ethnic Albanian Muslims, are different racially and religiously from Serbs which is why they wish to be independent. Oh, yeah, and Serbia waged genocide against them a few years ago). Because Russia wields a superveto in the UN Security Council, the establishment of an independent Kosovo as a member of the United Nations is all but impossible at this point. Furthemore, the Security Council would be powerless to punish Serbia because Russia would refuse the implementation of any castigation of Serbia. A Russian state that’s willing to interfere in matters of sovereignty in order to further strengthen their oil industry particularly troubles me (How’s this strategy working for the US btdubs?). This war-torn region is already rife with ethnic strife and Russia’s recent dealings only serve to exacerbate dormant tensions. However, please do not interpret this as a tacit endorsement of the ethnic Albanians on my part. Though the Kosovar Liberation Army is often labeled as a group of freedom fighters, or even martyrs, in the Western press, the KLA is just as ethnocentric and bigoted as their Serbian counterparts. Ask any Macedonian how they feel about Kosovars. Seemingly right after the ‘valiant’ Kosovars finished enduring various atrocities at the hands of Slobodan Milosevic, THEY invaded Western Macedonia, unprovoked, in order to perpetuate their Greater Albanian masterplan that includes annexing terrirtories from four neighboring states. Evidently, due to the intricate ethnic tapestry of the region, peace is tenuous and Russian meddling in the Balkans will only lead to further conflict.

First Article in the Blogosphere Pertaining to Both Heath Ledger and the ECB

My mom comes in to my room this afternoon, visibly distraught, and looks at me, and sees that I’m a frowny panda as well. Mommy exclaims “I can’t believe Heath Ledger is dead!” I exclaim, not a second later, “I can’t believe the Fed cut the interest rate by .75%!” We’ll get back to Heath in a minute, but I can’t believe the European Central Back right meow. The ECB is threatening to RAISE interest rates in this time of economic crisis because it claims its “mandate is to stave off inflation.” What?! So, after the economic crisis depletes the European economy, and everyone’s stocks have plummeted, I’m sure all the members of the European Monetary Union will be ecstatic that the ECB was able to effectively combat inflation. It’s as if the European Central Bank is deliberately ignoring a basic principle of 21^st century globalization: every economy is inextricably linked to one another. If the devaluation of the Thai Baht in 1997 singlehandedly caused the global economy to nose-dive, what the FUCK do you think is going to happen when the UNITED STATES economy starts to plunge? Un-fucking-believable. Let’s hope that this month’s Davos World Economic Summit will beat some sense into the Euroconomists. This is not meant to imply that Europe is entirely to blame. No, culpability resides firmly on the shoulders of the U.S. and A. But Europe cannot afford to ignore the writing on the wall much longer. Lord knows the US took their sweet time developing a solution. Seemingly every megabank had a post-subprime, 11 digit write-down two months ago. If that’s not a harbinger for impending economic doom, I’d like to know what is. THAT is when this 145 billion USD stimulus package should have come into effect. At least, in that scenario, this strategy would seem at least remotely premeditated and not just an emergency stop-gap solution that all but screams “ruh-roh!” If you’d like a doomsday SOSbrog investment recommendation: invest in wine. At least if our currency becomes worthless, you can drown your sorrows with booze that is simply delish.

Mein Lexus

So I was reading The Lexus and the Olive Tree (again) the other day, and Mr. Friedman informed me that in the summer of 1999, what book made the top 10 bestseller list in Germany? Mein freaking Kompf. Germans were quick to learn that the national ban against the infamous manifesto didn’t pertain to English versions sold on amazon.com! Some things never change…how long until Angela Merkel writes an anti-Turkish kebab treatise? My gut feeling says soon.