(I wrote this before the round commenced, and even though my predictions were a little high on the goals scored side, I’ll stand by what I wrote)
The only thing that can cheer me up after saying goodbye to the African Nations Cup is a comprehensive guide to the knockout stages of the CL! This round of 16 offers up 8 tremendous matchups and for those of you unfamiliar with the system, here’s how it works. Each team plays one leg away and one at home, and the leader in the aggregate (combined) score, wins. If the score is tied, then the team with the most away goals prevails. If they are tied on away goals, an extra time is played. The first round of matches will be played mid-week, so I’ll offer up a few predictions (all are aggregate score) that are guaranteed to be mostly incorrect.
1. Liverpool vs. Internazionale- This match would appear to be relatively easy to prognosticate. Internazionale has yet to lose this year in Italy’s Serie A competition, a streak that extends 23 games. Liverpool, looks to be in complete disarray, as they have been all but mathematically eliminated from the Premiership title, and were knocked out of the FA Cup this weekend by lowly Barnesly. However, Inter Milan traditionally struggles in the late stages of the Champions League and Liverpool frequently thrives, making it to two of the past three finals. Especially now that Liverpool only has the CL to play for, I think (as much as it pains me because I despise ‘pool) Liverpool will shock Internazionale in a close, two leg encounter. Prediction: Liverpool advance on the away goals rule, 3-3.
2. Roma vs. Real Madrid- This is another enticing match-up pitting two quality sides against one another. Roma has had a tremendous season thusfar, but I feel their defense is susceptible. This seems like a ludicrous assertion since the team has only given up a handful of goals in the new year. I contest that their defense is well equipped to defend against the slow pace of Italian attacks, but I see the speed of Real Madrid being too much to handle for Roma, whose back line consists of the error-prone Mexès, the offensive-minded Cicinho, and the aging Pannuci. Real Madrid, on the other hand, has gone to great lengths to shore up a defense that was one once of the most porous in the Champions League. Ballon d’Or winner Fabio Cannavaro and upstart Sergio Ramos play cohesively in the back, while veteran defender Gabriel Heinze provides added stability. Not to mention, Real’s forwards Raul, van Nistelrooy, and Robinho are three of the best on the planet. Look for Real to progress. Prediction: Real Madrid 4 – 2 Roma
3. Schalke 04 vs. FC Porto- This match will be one of the most difficult to predict, as Porto and Schalke are two of the sides that receive the least attention in the European media. A side like Porto is difficult to gauge because their domestic competition is minimal, so its often hard to determine their true form. I’m reticent to pick Porto, because they haven’t faced a true challenge since Champions League group play, and I suspect they will underestimate their legitimately talented opposition, perennial German contender, Schalke. Schalke will benefit from flying under the European radar, in addition to being very well rested. The German Bundasliga takes most of the month of January off, but one mustn’t worry about rust, as Schalke have overcome two difficult opposition sides since the break(Stuttgart and a derby triumph over Dortmund). Schalke also plays some very physical football, which has flustered Portuguese sides in the past. Look for Schalke to scrape by in an upset. Prediction: Schalke 04 5 – 4 Porto
4. Olympiakos vs. Chelsea- This could be the least intriguing fixture of the matchday. Olympiakos have shown tremendous heart to advance this far in the tournament, but they will be far outclassed by the wealthy west Londoners. The return of Essien, Drogba and Kalou from national team duty, and talisman John Terry’s recovery from a foot injury will serve to reinforce an incredibly skilled side. Chelsea to win in a walkover. Prediction: Olympiakos 1 – 5 Chelsea.
5. Arsenal vs. AC Milan- Both of these teams are reeling. Milan has had two disappointing draws on the trot (including to lowly Communists, Livorno) and Arsenal was embarassed on the weekend by a seemingly invincible Manchester United side, 4-0. Arsenal’s domestic league form however has been remarkable, so I’m leaning towards Arsenal if Adebayor is declared fit. He’s scored 19 goals this season, and is a matchup nightmare for the lead-footed, elderly Milan defense. Offensively, Kaka and his new partner in crime Alexandre “the Duck” Pato will ask questions of the Arsenal defense, but the central pairing of Gallas and Touré will not be penetrated too often, offering the Rossoneri few chances. Arsenal 3 – 2 Milano
6. Celtic vs. Barcelona- (Caution, partisan perspective!) As an American of Irish descent (more on that later), I consider myself somewhat of a Celtic fan. But I have to admit their chances in this one are slim. But there is some good news for the side: Scottish League Player of the Year Shunsuke “The Snuke” Nakamura has returned from injury. If Celtic has a prayer of winning, the Japanese midfielder is the key, due to his brilliant set-piece ability. Any foul within thirty metres means The Snuke has a chance to unleash his extremely accurate left-foot. If Celtic maintains an extremely physical match, this could disrupt Barca’s game plan (this strategy worked effectively for cross-town rivals Glasgow Rangers during the first round against Barcelona). Unfortunately for those of us who support Celtic, Barcelona possesses three of the best offensive geniuses in the world in Ronaldinho, Thierry Henry, and Leo Messi (fledglings Serbo-Spaniard Bojan Krkic and Brazilian-Mexican Geovanni also provide spectacular reinforcements to an already stacked offense). Their mazy runs and brilliant flicks will ask many questions of the Celtic defense, but I see their physicality stymieing the vast majority of these approaches; however, the inevitable breaches will be enough to sink Celtic. Prediction: Celtic 1 – 3 Barcelona
7. Fenerbahce vs. FC Sevilla- Fenerbahce is probably the worst side to make it to the knock-out phase. They have a decent attack led by Brazilians Alex and Roberto Carlos (technically a defender, but let’s be honest) but their defense is traditionally deplorable, and has a tendency to give up a large number of goals to stronger European opposition with dynamic offenses. Though Sevilla’s offense has sputtered of late, I see the likes of African POY Fredi Kanouté and lively wingback Dani Alves wreakin havoc on the Istanbul side’s defense. Fener 2 – 6 FC Sevilla
8. Olympique Lyonnais vs. Manchester United- (Caution: even more of a partisan perspective!) Though most pundits are quick to dismiss this matchup as a likely rout, I personally think this will be a close, energetic encounter between two European heavyweights. Recent off-field developments have generated even more tension, as Manyoo boss Sir Alex Ferguson purportedly bid forty million pounds for Lyon’s pacey winger Hatem Ben Arfa and prolific striker Karim Benzema. Lyon head-honcho cheekily retorted that he’d only consider parting with Ben Arfa if Manchester exchanged him for Cristiano Ronaldo and cash. Sir Alex is a rather humorless man (he once threw a shoe at David Beckham during a locker room clash) and does not respond well to witty quips. As well, off-the-field, but unrelated to the media circus, an acquaintance of mine named Spencer claimed that Manchester would beat Lyon four-nil in a lopsided affair. I “apparently” then threw the contents of my beer in his face. On the field, however, ManU is a class above Lyon at this point. This is not meant to disparage my beloved Olympique Lyonnais; I just think ManU is the best team in the world at this point. When I first learned the news that OL was to face ManU, I felt sick: it’s a nightmare draw for OL because ManU has the perfect combination of pace and physicality, an amalgam that has derailed OL in the past. I’d venture to say that Cristiano Ronaldo is the best player in the world, and his breathtaking skill will likely give Lyon’s defense (their weakest link) fits. Lyon is a stubborn side though, and look for them to keep it close, with Juninho’s deadly free kicks, Benzema’s finishing touch, and Ben Arfa’s mazy runs occasionally infiltrating the Mancunian defense, but in the end, the Reds from the home of the Industrial Revolution look too strong. Prediction: Olympique Lyonnais 3 – 4 Manchester United. (You got me, I’m only predicting ManU because that way if Lyon loses, I can take some solace in the fact that I prophesized the match’s outcome correctly).